Navigating Change in the Cod Market: Our Perspective

At Southstream Seafoods, our role has always gone beyond supplying fish. We see ourselves as a long-term partner to our customers — helping you make informed decisions in markets that are increasingly complex and fast-moving.

Over the past months, many of you have asked similar questions: Why are cod prices rising? Is this temporary? What should we expect next? These are fair questions, and they deserve clear, grounded answers.

What’s happening in the cod market is not a sudden disruption, but a shift that has been building quietly. Understanding it early allows for better planning, calmer decision-making, and smarter menu and sourcing choices.

Why Cod Prices Are Changing

Atlantic cod pricing has reached levels the US market hasn’t experienced before. While the impact has been gradual, the reality is now becoming more visible: the full effects of higher cod costs are expected to be felt across the US market by Q2 2026.

This isn’t driven by speculation or short-term volatility. It’s the result of structural supply constraints.

Recent reporting by Undercurrent News highlights that Norwegian headed-and-gutted (H&G) Atlantic cod prices moved beyond $10,000 per metric ton in late 2025 and have continued to rise. At the same time, global supply has tightened significantly.

Barents Sea cod quotas have declined sharply over the past five years, and US buyers no longer have access to Russian-origin cod. The market is now dependent on a much smaller Norwegian supply base. Simply put, there is less cod available, and supply is no longer able to comfortably absorb demand.

Why the Impact Was Felt Later in the US

Many buyers didn’t feel the full impact immediately — and there’s a reason for that.

Over the past year, importers relied on existing inventories of finished cod products that had been produced when raw material prices were lower. This helped stabilize pricing temporarily.

However, cod typically moves through a long supply chain, often involving processing and freezing months before it reaches the US market. As older inventory clears, higher raw material costs now flow directly through to wholesale pricing. That buffer has largely disappeared.

This is why price increases may feel abrupt, even though the pressure has been building for some time.

What to Expect as We Move Through 2026

As we enter Q2 2026, the market is adjusting to this new reality. Buyers should expect:

• Sustained higher prices for cod, particularly loins and value-added cuts
• Continued pressure on margins for cod-centric menus
• Lower overall volumes across the category
• Growing interest in alternative whitefish species

Cod is increasingly behaving like a premium, carefully managed product, rather than a broadly interchangeable staple.

What This Means for our Customers

Moments like this tend to reward clarity and preparation, not reaction.

For many operators, this is an opportunity to:

• Revisit portion sizes and formats
• Explore alternative species that offer consistency and yield
• Reposition cod dishes to reflect their true value
• Work closely with suppliers who can provide transparency and options

Historically, when prices reach a certain point, demand doesn’t disappear — it adapts. Menus evolve, sourcing becomes more intentional, and value is defined more clearly.

Our Commitment

At Southstream Seafoods, we believe the most important thing in times of change is clear communication.

We continue to monitor market conditions closely, share insights as they emerge, and support our partners in navigating pricing, availability, and alternative sourcing options. Our goal is to help you make decisions that work not just today, but over the long term.

If you’d like to discuss what this means for your menu, your customers, or your sourcing strategy, our team is always available to talk.

Source | Market insights informed by reporting from Undercurrent News, January 2026.